"Pain is inevitable, suffering is not.”
* * * Henepola Gunaratana
- VP PRICE MAPS
THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!!
THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW
The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...
Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...
SP MARCH mini VP PRICES
The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.50 as of 2/12/19 on a VP buy signal...
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2833.56 and must close below that price
on
Wednesday, March 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
Minor - - 2817.41
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2792.00
MAJOR - - 2766.32 and must close below that price
on
Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2743.01
MAJOR - - 2734.73 and must close below that price
on
Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2617.87
The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...
PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...
APRIL GOLD VP PRICES
The main model is now short the April gold at 1343.80 as of 2/20/19 on a VP sell signal...
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1333.52
minor - - 1300.93
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1283.50
MAJOR - - 1282.32 and must close above that price on Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none
The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...
- OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!
RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17
If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily... if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...
THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015
YEAR NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES POINTS GAINED
2015 4 trades 125.30
2016 13 trades 322.60
2017 25 trades 224.75
2018 26 trades 76.00
2019 2 trades 56.50
TOTAL 70 closed trades 805.15
THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015
2015 8 trades 372.60
2016 6 trades 364.90
2017 9 trades 381.60
2018 9 trades -15.00
2019 2 trades 15.00
TOTAL 33 closed trades 1121.10
To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!! If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...
16.96 points booked on closed positions, that's up .389% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!! NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!
BUT STILL MORE THAN 290 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only
I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!
PLEASE NOTE: There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols... for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...
DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK...
If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...
ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...
ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...
GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY: Precious Metals (JDST)...
GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE: none...
GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY: Stock market Indices (UDOW, TNA), Consumer Discretionary (MCD)
...
IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...
| MARKET | POSITION | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | SHORT STOP | EXIT STOP | POINTS FROM ENTRY | YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS | ||
| STOCK INDICES | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | ENTERED AT | SHORT STOP | EXIT STOP | CURRENT PRICE | ||||
| March ES | long | … | 2762.25 | 2655.50 | … | … | 70 trades | *805.15 | ||
| … | … | *not included | ||||||||
| DIA | long | … | 256.25 | 241.59 | 0.00 | 258.28 | ||||
| UDOW * | flat | 100.67 | 94.53 | 13.22 | 95.9 | |||||
| SPY | long | … | 276.81 | 260.75 | 0.00 | 279.4 | ||||
| SPXL * | long | … | 43.45 | 37.58 | 0.00 | 44.89 | ||||
| UPRO * | long | … | 45.92 | 39.62 | 0.00 | 47.46 | ||||
| QQQ | long | … | 170.61 | 161.77 | 0.00 | 174.42 | ||||
| TQQQ * | long | … | 48.83 | 43.59 | 0.00 | 52.07 | ||||
| TNA * | flat | 69.72 | 65.45 | 12.57 | 66.04 | |||||
| SOXL | long | … | 122.16 | 99.34 | -11.79 | 130.11 | ||||
| IWM | long | … | 155.54 | 144.09 | 0.00 | 156.81 | ||||
| MDY | long | … | 246.20 | 321.03 | 0.00 | 349.22 | ||||
| IYT | flat | 192.37 | 188.42 | 13.79 | 187.65 | |||||
| VXX | flat | no data | 0.38 | #N/A | ||||||
| TOTAL | 28.17 | |||||||||
| PRECIOUS METALS | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | ENTERED AT | SHORT STOP | EXIT STOP | |||||
| April Gold | short | … | … | 1303.70 | … | 1350.80 | ||||
| GLD * | flat | 127.31 | 124.66 | 5.12 | 121.56 | |||||
| UGL | flat | 40.85 | 38.29 | 2.24 | 37.11 | |||||
| SLV * | flat | 15.31 | 14.90 | 0.24 | 14.15 | |||||
| GLL | long | … | 66.73 | 71.10 | 0.00 | 73.06 | ||||
| ZSL | long | … | 35.02 | 37.37 | 0.00 | 39.4 | ||||
| PPLT * | long | … | 77.26 | 78.94 | -2.84 | 79.1 | ||||
| GDX * | flat | 23.80 | 23.22 | 1.01 | 21.85 | |||||
| GDXJ * | flat | 35.14 | 34.33 | 1.35 | 31.43 | |||||
| NUGT * | flat | 24.07 | 22.52 | -0.09 | 18.67 | |||||
| JNUG * | flat | 13.80 | 12.87 | 0.20 | 9.81 | |||||
| DUST * | long | … | 19.02 | 20.34 | -1.60 | 19.99 | ||||
| JDST * | long | … | 39.95 | 42.61 | 0.00 | 41.98 | ||||
| TOTAL | 5.63 | |||||||||
| INTEREST RATES | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| TLT * | flat | 122.64 | 120.08 | 2.99 | 119.59 | |||||
| TMF | flat | 19.94 | 18.64 | 1.47 | 18.48 | |||||
| TBT * | long | … | 35.17 | 35.99 | -0.83 | 36.08 | ||||
| TMV | long | … | 17.69 | 18.93 | 0.00 | 18.95 | ||||
| VCLT | flat | 88.81 | 86.93 | 1.29 | 87.51 | |||||
| TOTAL | 4.92 | |||||||||
| UTILITIES | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| XLU | long | … | 55.48 | 53.63 | 0.00 | 57.23 | ||||
| TOTAL | 0.00 | |||||||||
| AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| PPA * | long | … | 57.93 | 52.90 | 0.00 | |||||
| TOTAL | 0.00 | |||||||||
| FINANCE AND BANKING | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| FAS * | long | … | 61.38 | 59.97 | 5.36 | 62.86 | ||||
| JPM * | long | … | 103.40 | 105.34 | -0.23 | 104.19 | ||||
| TOTAL | 5.13 | |||||||||
| ENERGY | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| XLE | long | … | 64.74 | 65.37 | -2.74 | 66.57 | ||||
| OILU * | flat | 24.84 | 23.24 | -4.19 | 22.92 | |||||
| GUSH | flat | 12.32 | 11.48 | -0.83 | 11.28 | |||||
| SCO | flat | 22.90 | 21.43 | 12.00 | 18.99 | |||||
| TOTAL | 4.24 | |||||||||
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| DIS * | long | … | 111.64 | 114.02 | -4.73 | 114.33 | ||||
| WMT * | flat | 104.28 | 102.09 | -6.19 | 97.85 | |||||
| MCD * | flat | 185.75 | 181.94 | -4.18 | 180.59 | |||||
| TGT * | long | … | 71.64 | 73.20 | -4.19 | 72.67 | ||||
| TOTAL | -19.29 | |||||||||
| GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE | ||||||||||
| IGF | long | … | 42.82 | 41.65 | 0.00 | 43.73 | ||||
| TOTAL | 0.00 | |||||||||
| HEALTHCARE | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| UNH * | flat | 272.59 | 267.03 | 1.88 | 236.02 | |||||
| CURE | long | … | 54.32 | 53.47 | -3.47 | 55.49 | ||||
| XLV | long | … | 90.96 | 90.23 | -1.89 | 91.69 | ||||
| JNJ * | long | … | 134.16 | 131.28 | -2.71 | 138.48 | ||||
| TOTAL | -6.19 | |||||||||
| CURRENCIES | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| EUO | flat | 25.39 | 23.76 | -0.19 | 25.04 | |||||
| ULE | flat | 15.00 | 14.00 | -0.56 | 14.65 | |||||
| FXY * | flat | 87.15 | 85.31 | 1.98 | 85.38 | |||||
| YCS * | long | … | 75.50 | 74.55 | 0.00 | 77.33 | ||||
| TOTAL | 1.23 | |||||||||
| FOREIGN MARKETS | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| FXI * | long | … | 43.24 | 41.20 | 0.00 | 44.42 | ||||
| EURL * | long | … | 25.24 | 22.43 | 0.00 | 26.38 | ||||
| EEM * | long | … | 42.08 | 40.88 | 0.00 | 42.55 | ||||
| EZU * | long | … | 37.85 | 37.98 | 0.13 | 38.66 | ||||
| TOTAL | 0.13 | |||||||||
| TECHNOLOGY | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| AAPL * | long | … | 170.20 | 159.46 | -2.80 | 175.85 | ||||
| IBM | long | … | 137.07 | 121.96 | 0.00 | 138.43 | ||||
| MSFT * | long | … | 106.19 | 108.00 | -2.23 | 112.26 | ||||
| TOTAL | -5.03 | |||||||||
| AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES | BUY STOP | EXIT STOP | BOUGHT AT | |||||||
| DBA | flat | 17.13 | 16.89 | 0.00 | 16.33 | |||||
| DBC | long | … | 15.64 | 15.54 | 0.00 | 15.83 | ||||
| CF | flat | 45.53 | 44.52 | -1.98 | 42.08 | |||||
| GCC | flat | 18.35 | 17.88 | 0.00 | 17.85 | |||||
| TOTAL | -1.98 | |||||||||
| YTD | 16.96 | |||||||||
| %YTD | 0.389% | |||||||||
| IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS… | ||||||||||
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only
- MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS
ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL
See the attachment for all comments... the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...
TRADING RULE
When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...
- TUTORIAL
The Main Model Formula
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.
Light Positions:
It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...
Trailing Stops:
Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...
Trading Strategy:
Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...
HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
The entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to reducing market risk in any portfolio... therefore, the key to legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups as possible... in other words, do not focus on only one market or favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another, one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...
Commit between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly distributed among all markets...
Participate in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...
Upon entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4% initial risk exit stop... if you get stopped out, then that's the end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough... if you are not stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also rises... this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for as long as that market rallies...
About 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further gains...
The optimized model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible until weakness begin to show itself...
Several of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... we have discontinued using the large contract since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and therefore may give false signals...
The Confirmation Price
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
The Floor/Ceiling Price
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
How To Read The VP Price
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH
The momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...
THE CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:
The Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT momentum graph... the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also bottomed... a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward... I find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk market positions...
THE VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...
DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2019.
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